Blog

Short blog posts, journal entries, and random thoughts. Topics include a mix of personal and the world at large.

Can you afford it though?

I reckon most people don’t think about the total cost of ownership when it comes to cars. So long as the monthly payment is reasonable, why the hell not! You can absolutely afford that $70,000 truck. I get it: those payments are the consistent, tangible thing on the monthly budget. And if you ever miss payments, the lending bank is coming to take that truck away.

Wouldn’t want that now, would we?

The other costly parts of car ownership shows up not nearly as often. We get to gripe about super high insurance costs only once every six months. State licensing is an annual thing. Maintenance? The typical new car has a few years of free maintenance at the dealership. Unless you drive an F ton of miles, wear items such as tires and brakes get replaced every few years. Out of sight, out of mind, and out of consideration.

Out of the budget, too. How many car owners actually save up money in preparation for that $1,500 tire bill, or $600 major service - after free maintenance expires? (I’m obviously excluding the rich folks who can more than afford to write a random $2,000 check like it’s nothing.) Anecdotally, I’ve seen many people who can’t come up with these sums so suddenly. So they either put it on a credit card, or cheap out on the needed service. “What’s the cheapest set of tires available for this car?”

What then counts as maintenance is taking the car to Walmart for oil changes. That’s it. I’m half convinced the reason certain car brands are unreliable is because of owners not following the specified maintenance procedure precisely. Simply changing the oil every year on a BMW is not going to cut it. On the other hand, a Toyota will still last forever on oil changes alone.

Which is why I have no worries about keeping my BMW M2 past its warranty period. I am going to maintain that car by the book - either with the dealership, or an independent BMW mechanic. And obviously, I’ve budgeted for this. New tires are due this year, and the cost is not going to be a surprise.

You love to see it

Word on the street is that McDonald’s is finally feeling the heat from consumers for charging high menu prices. I am very happy to see that I am not the only one around here who is immensely price elastic when it comes to outside food. Ever since a simple meal at the local McDonald’s crossed over the rubicon of $10, I’ve been largely abstaining from the Golden Arches. The only time I go now is during free fries Fridays on the McDonald’s app - spend $1, get medium fries for free. I buy a soda.

I am also very happy to see the supply-demand economic see-saw is alive and well. Capitalism and the free market is not dead! Restaurants can’t keep hiking the prices forever. Though honestly I am a bit surprised at how quickly consumers have pulled back on spending vis-a-vis high menu prices. It’s way too easy to put things on a credit card, isn’t it? What’s $20 here and there when it’s the future you that have to pay for it. I’ve certainly been young, dumb, and friviolous with spending before.

If cost of goods sold remains high into the foreseeable future, I don’t see how much McDonald’s can reduce its prices. Especially here in California, where the government saw fit to implement a $20 per hour minimum wage for fast food workers. Forcing a salary floor is a hugely anti-free market move, an undue burden on the entrepreneur. California McDonald’s franchisees will be stuck between rock and a hard place: corporate rolls out new value menus, but their high labor cost leaves a very thin operating margin.

The way I see it, I don’t see outside food getting less expensive - back to pre-pandemic times - again. I’m going to be like my friend who lives in Switzerland. Eating out over there is tremendously expensive, so she mostly doesn’t. That’s going to me. We’ve got food at home, baby!

Can you though?

As a car enthusiast of over two decades, I am extremely familiar with stretching our dollars in order to buy cars. People spend money on eating out, we spend it on cars. If I weren’t a car enthusiast with a penchant for switching (brand-new) rides every three years, I would have immensely more wealth in investment accounts right now.

Obviously, they don’t give out medals for having the most money going to the grave. In this life you got to spend your money on something. It’s all about balance.

What my brother is planning to do is very far off balance. He’s put in an order for a car that is three times his annual income. Fair enough: he’s been saving diligently for as big a downpayment as possible. And apparently, with “exotic” cars, there exist banking services that would finance them for far longer terms than the typical mainstream vehicle. That is how my brother plan to “afford” this supposedly incoming car.

I’m sure the man-maths are working overtime to justify this move. However, the mistake is trusting the numbers on paper are static. Just look at recent inflation: gas, insurance, and maintenance costs have increased dramatically. The monthly fixed costs seem to be going ever higher. I guess my brother can save on gas by not driving the car, but then… what the heck is the point?

Then there’s the variable costs, with life being the variable. Pinching every possible penny to afford a car means any surprises down the proverbial road - and there’s always going to be surprises - will put my brother into the negative immediately. Can he afford an unscheduled wheel and tire replacement (unfortunate encounter with a pothole, let’s say) when he can barely afford the monthly payments? The only way the math is going to work is if life goes absolutely perfect. That’s simply not possible.

I’ve told my brother all of this, of course. Hopefully it’s enough to steer him from an enormous financial albatross.

The math is not math-ing

The most dangerous time for a car enthusiast, is when they are about to pay off their car. No more car loan debt means that money is freed up for something else: another car, naturally. The mind wanders at the possibilities. Perhaps it’s time to buy a car with a drivetrain layout you’ve never had before. Or perhaps it’s to re-purchase a car you shouldn’t have ever sold (thank goodness I cannot comfortably afford to buy another Porsche 911 GT3).

If there’s money in the bank account, you have to spend it. Isn’t that the American way? This entire economic house of cards is dependent on people’s continuous, often times reckless, spending.

My 2021 BMW M2 Competition will be paid of in a few months. And boy is the itch to buy another car itching intensely as that date draws nearer. I’m not being irresponsible! It will be the same money that would have gone to the M2 each month! It’s very easy to rationalize to yourself any purchase. The only reason I don’t have a mortgage is because the banks wouldn’t lend me the money.

But, as I like to say since last year: “Not in this economy!” Some people think that because they can afford the monthly car payment, they can afford the car. Don’t be like those people. We have to take in account the total operating cost. That means insurance, gas, and maintenance. And unless you’ve been living under a rock, all three of those things have gone up a lot in recent years thanks to inflation.

Never mind the fact that new cars have gotten rightly expensive. (Average transaction price in America is $47,338 as of this January.) High interest rates also means that monthly payment will be up as well. It’s really not a good time to be buying a second car, taking on tens of thousands of debt for another five years. I am going to keep telling myself that this entire 2024.

Get the Michelins

Ally bank is sneaky. They are quick to email me when the interest rate on the savings account goes up, but not a single peep when it goes down. I didn’t even realize it went down until my friend told me that it did. It came as a surprise because the Fed has kept the federal funds rate at the same level for the past several months. So it’s double sneaky: why am I getting less interest when the benchmark rate hasn’t moved at all?

Don’t make me move to SoFi! I really don’t want to do that!

In this post-pandemic era of high inflation, it’s never been more important to have a money cushion. Unexpected items arise and you kind of have to deal with it. For example, my friend recently found a tire defect (a sidewall bulge, likely due to San Francisco’s lovely potholes) on his Tesla Model Y. Because of this - combined with significant mileage on the original set of tries - he had to fork over $2,000 to replace all four Michelins.

If (the royal) you don’t have a savings cushion, that $2,000 will be one of those setbacks that you see in people with heavy debt. They are making steady progress in paying off debt, then boom, an unexpected $2,000 kicks them right back down the chute. Okay, maybe they’re paying $1,000 instead for the Chinese brands. For four split payments with Affirm. Or Klarna.

Honestly, nobody really budgets for tires, right? They see the monthly payment for the car, and petrol, as the only true outlay. The rest is out of sight, out of mind - because they occur not nearly as often. Insurance renewal only comes around twice a year. Maintenance - unless you drive an overwhelming number of miles - is once a year. Tires? Let’s say once every few years. But, if you have a money cushion, then these maintenance events won’t ever be shocks to the finances.

The interest rate may have lowered slightly on my savings account, but that money serves a critical, foundational purpose: emergency fund for unexpected expenses.

Not in this economy

I read this article about the owner of a local Mexican restaurant justifying why the price of their burrito has doubled in price (from $13 to $22) in a few years. The reasons for inflation is universal: material cost and labor costs have increased dramatically. I can appreciate this owner isn’t price gouging for the sake of price gouging. This isn’t like McDonalds: record profits after raising menu prices (read: pure greed).

What restaurant owners need to appreciate in return is that higher menu pricing is going to deter some customers from patronage. (Price elasticity: I learned this in business school.) I am amongst that group of eaters. I have great mental difficulty in paying $22 for a burrito, no matter how deliciously crafted it is, and no matter how logically sound the price came to be. (Especially not when Chipotle exists.) I guess my cost anchor for restaurant food is still in the pre-pandemic era.

Some prices just don’t make any sense to me. $9 for a small bag of popcorn chicken at Quickly is simply absurd. Before the pandemic it used to cost $5. I’ve yet to buy an order at the new price. Quickly has lost me as a customer, perhaps forever if its menu prices don’t go back down. Not to say the company should be sad about it. I see plenty of students on campus willing to pay the $9 for popcorn chicken, and $6 for a milk-tea drink.

You know those hot dog carts that pop up on sidewalks near big events? I recently found out a hot dog there is $10! Think it over: a vendor that doesn’t pay for any rent or permit still needs to charge such high prices to make money. That’s a no buy from me. Not when a hot dog and drink is (a heavily subsidized) $1.50 at Costco.

I’m just hugely price-sensitive when it comes to outside food, that’s all. Restauranteurs can only raise prices so much before it deters enough people like me for it to be a negative. Maybe $22 for a burrito is not that juncture - perhaps $30? If I’m paying that much for a burrito, it had better be the best damn burrito on planet earth.

Endless inflation

And the inflation hits keep on coming. Yesterday I was surprised with a double-whammy: renewal notices on this very domain (hosted by GoDaddy), and my auto insurance (underwritten by Progressive). Both are going up, much to my immense chagrin. Honestly, what remains in our daily lives that has not increased in pricing?

I would classify GoDaddy’s price bump as greed. How much work is there to maintain domain registration? My website is not even hosted with GoDaddy! I am failing to understand where the extra money is going towards. Maybe this site has increased in traffic enough to warrant a price increase? (A lot more pings!) That’s just my ego talking, obviously.

What isn’t greed is my auto insurance premiums going up. I have first-hand experience with how expensive it is to fix cars these days. My father’s Toyota Corolla got into a low-speed fender bender, and the whole ordeal was over $10,000. That’s about half the cost of the car new. It’s all the tech stuff in modern cars that’s driving up the costs. The Corolla has a front radar sensor, which in addition to replacing, the body shop had to drive the car to the local Toyota dealership to get it re-calibrated. Money.

So I don’t blame Progressive for raising my rates. The only slight ickiness about it is that it will probably never go back down. Cars certainly are not getting less complicated! Paying $200 a month (almost maximum coverage with high deductibles) for a car I seldom drive is the price to pay for being a car enthusiasts. My brother has a Lotus Evora - a six-figure sports car - on order. He’s going to be absolutely raked over when it comes to insuring that thing properly.

As saying goes: got to pay to play.