Blog

Short blog posts, journal entries, and random thoughts. Topics include a mix of personal and the world at large.

Staying ahead

I was disappointed to see the Greek yogurt - my go-to breakfast food of choice - increasing in price at my local Whole Foods. The staples are getting pricier again! At least my staples are. I’m still smarting over the price of coffee jumping 20% thanks to President Trump’s tariffs. Priced out of a coffee? That would take a whole lot.

I don’t expect rich people to have scars from the high inflation of the post-COVID period. Which is why we shouldn’t expect the Trump administration to back down from import tariffs. These people understand fully well that it’s the American customers paying the tax. They’re just all wealthy enough to absorb it without care.

Meanwhile, the rest of us are simply, hopelessly, trying to stay ahead of inflation. Especially during this time of uncertain labor markets (unless you are a genius A.I. engineer). My place of employment is going through a budget contraction. I’m lucky to have a job, never mind any hope of yearly salary increases to keep up with inflation.

That means the purchasing power of my current salary will continue to decrease. To combat it means having to let go of some other spending. The aforementioned pricier Greek Yogurt? Well, I typically buy a can of something to drink whenever I enter Whole Foods. I gave that up soon as I saw the 50 cent increase. I have water at home, thank you.

Similar choices who have to made in the future, so long as inflation continues, and my income remains static. Perhaps Progressive will raise the insurance on my car again. To compensate, the Disney Plus subscription will have to go.

Not an emergency

I think the holy grail of personal finance is having an emergency fund. Obviously that comes after spending less than you make, and paying off whatever debts existing. But the emergency fund, at least for me, has always been a difficult nut to crack. Six months’ (or one year) worth of spending saved in a savings account. That’s a tall order, because it’s a lot of money, even for a miserly person like myself.

It’s easy on paper: I already spend less than I make, so it’s just a matter of slow accumulation. But something always interrupts the process. An errant rock flung into the windshield of the car means a thousand dollar replacement. It’s not always something unfortunate! Earlier this April, I unloaded my entire emergency fund into the stock market because it experienced a 20% correction. The perfect time to buy more. That also means I had to start from scratch vis a vis the emergency fund.

Maybe we’re being too strict about it? In some ways my investments can be an emergency fund. (Some would argue I shouldn’t have investments - that aren’t tax advantaged - before an emergency fund?) It’s not as liquid as a savings account, sure, but there are other monetary vehicles to use in an actual emergency. The first thing to come out of the wallet is the credit card anyways. That gives at least a few weeks lead time to then liquidate the necessary investment to pay for that spend.

It’s not ideal for sure, because any time you sell securities, you have to pay capital gains tax.

The safety and stress-reduction in having a proper emergency fund is undeniable. In fact, it can feel eerie because it leaves you with nothing to worry about financially. No debts, investments are automatic, and there’s enough in savings to sustain me for half a year, should I lose my job. Peace of mind can be surprisingly disconcerting when you first shut off the noise completely.

Subsidized lifestyle

Word on the street is the Chase Sapphire Reserve card - the preeminent travel rewards credit card - is increasing its annual fee. What started at an already hefty $450 per year is now a whopping $795 per annum. COVID-era inflation comes for everything eventually.

Of course, Chase has all sorts of new card benefits to potentially offset the price jump. But it’s all predicated on one thing: cardholder spending. This is a classic case of spending money to save money, which only works if that money is what you would have spent regardless. If you wouldn’t have in the first place, then you really shouldn’t have.

I did sign up for the Sapphire Reserve when it was first introduced many moons ago. The signup bonus was super generous: 100,000 points on a $4,000 initial spend (worth a thousand dollars in cash value.) Coupled with the $300 travel credit per year, the true annual fee was only $150 at the time. As an annually traveler, it was not difficult to for me to “break even”, so to speak.

That 100,000 bonus point allowed me to fly first class to Korea in 2017. Truly living the champagne life on a beer budget. But that was during a time when lots of capital was going toward subsidizing a rich person’s lifestyle for the mundane middle class earner. Surely you remember: UBER rides used to be cheap, thanks to the company continuously burning through VC cash to hide the real cost.

Did we honestly think we can afford to have our burritos hand delivered from the taqueria for only a few bucks? DoorDash fees used to be not so exorbitant, too.

Well, those sweet subsidized days are over. The premium travel reward credit cards are now only for those who can comfortably spend the high amount necessary to reap the rewards. Good news for me, I cancelled my Sapphire Reserve soon as COVID prevented any sorts of traveling.

I am priced out

I was walking through my local Target store when I noticed a 20 ounce bottle of Coke now costs $3.19? And that is before tax! I am old enough to remember when 20 ounce bottles were 99 cent. A dollar bill at the vending machine was enough to obey your thirst.

Talk about things I am priced out of. Buying soda drinks at a store is one of them. Filtered water is just fine, thank you very much.

But then people would argue that saving that three dollar on a daily soda (or four dollars on a daily coffee) is not going to get me to buying a house. The math on that in the San Francisco Bay Area is indeed tragic. Those people are right: keeping that $3 in my pocket is merely pissing in the wind of houses that start at a million dollars.

A better use for that $3 is to buy the lottery. At least there’s a infinitesimal chance!

In the grand scheme of things, buying a soda bottle here and there is not going to monetarily affect me one bit. But it’s the mindset that counts here. We can all agree that spending money is easy. The American credit system is fantastic in that regard. Therefore I think we have to train our resistance muscles (not to be confused with resisting a certain presidency). The calculus has to be more than: can I afford it, if yes, then buy!

Saying no to the $4 coffee helps me say no to a new iPad Air I’ve been eyeing, or a newer laptop to replace this “aging” M1 MacBook Pro. Those are the money decisions that really slice chunks: the hundreds and thousands of dollars at a time. Money that can otherwise grow significantly if put to proper investing.

If I really want to drink soda, I’d go buy in bulk from Costco.

No magic pill

Personal finance is easy. Spend less than you make. Put that extra money into the market in a low-cost index fund. Rinse and repeat every single month for decades, until you are ready to retire. You can say it all fits on an index card.

But like losing weight - eat less than you expend in energy, what’s easy on paper is difficult for people to execute. That’s why American obesity rate is top 10 in the world. (GLP1 agonists to the rescue!) And consumer credit card debt is at an all time high.

From watching personal finance shows like Caleb Hammer, what I am seeing is that people do understand what needs to be done, but the salience of that action is buried under a pile of emotions hijacking the brain. That forthcoming vacation is way more exciting to think about. The DoorDash delivery person is coming soon with that burrito you deserve after a long day at work. Why yes you absolutely should spend a year’s salary on a brand new car.

The boring and unexciting slog of wealth accumulation never stood a chance against those positive emotions. Just like the cozy and comfortable couch beckons you to abandon your difficult and tiresome workout plans for the day.

It can’t be all down to willpower, right? To mentally fight against the easy and pick the hard. Because we all know that willpower is fleeting. Our marvelous minds can convince and rationalize us of (and out of) anything. Spend six-figures on a car? Of course! I am a card-carrying car enthusiast. Hashtag man maths.

Unfortunately, unlike weight loss, there’s no magic pill for debt.

Sitting pretty

With the (supposedly) looming 25% tariffs on all automobiles assembled outside of the United States, the people in the best position is drivers like me: owning a fully paid off car that’s made in this decade. So long as my BMW M2 doesn’t get totaled in an accident (knocks on wood), I don’t have to worry about the price increases that are sure to come. That is, if President Trump actually goes through with the threat.

With so much economic uncertainty in the near horizon, a debt-free position, with multiple months of cash in reserves, is more crucial than ever. The only reason a recent auto insurance premium increase did not cripple me is because my car is paid off. Funds that would otherwise have gone to service a loan (the average new car payment currently is a whopping $742 a month) now acts as a buffer.

And it’s having a money buffer that keeps the stresses at bay. Friends have checked in on me recently, because my place of employment is facing a budget deficit. Layoffs are definitely on the table. Am I worried about my job? Not as much as I should be, as perceived from the outside. A emergency fund runway for many months of spending allows me to not stress about any job loss. The world is not going to end. I’ve got the time and resources to reset at my own pace.

Even outside of losing a job, life will keep throwing financial curveballs at you. That’s just part of the game. Unexpected expenses are unexpected. Living on thin margins month-to-month leaves you vulnerable. Having a buffer is just good preparation.

I know, I know: sob story about how everything is more expensive, and people aren’t as privilege as me. Okay, someone please square this hole: if many folks are so struggling, then explain the record-breaking 2024 holiday shopping season?

Price sensitivity

The goal of President Trump’s tariffs threat is to bring manufacturing back to America, right? The downside of course is that things will become more expensive. Manufacturing didn’t leave America because of some evil corporate plan. The simple reality is that labor is cheaper elsewhere. Lowering cost of goods sold is a big lever to increase profits. Or have profits in the first place.

Tariffs are merely tacking those labor savings back onto the purchase price. There’s one for sure loser, and it’s the consumer.

For sure there are plenty of cheap crap coming out of China. But in the year 2025 it’s beyond pass time to acknowledge that China can also produce things of the highest quality. Did we forget the iPhone has been made in China since inception? The Apple smartphone is as precise a device as it gets.

“Made in the U.S.A.” still denotes a higher quality in people’s minds. Whether or not it’s actually true is up for debate. What is definitely true is that it’ll cost more compared to foreign-sourced manufacturers. I recently bought a barbell, and the unit made with American steel is $85 dearer than the Chinese-made equivalent from another company. The decision was easy.

Coming out of the high inflationary period of the pandemic, I am always looking for the best deals on anything. And doesn’t everybody? Who has the money to boycott Amazon (because big bad Bezos)? If a particular item is the cheapest on Amazon, I am buying it there. I do not have the income to support an artisan soap business at a farmer’s market. If you do, please go ahead.

I will live life as cheaply as possible, because everything else has gone up in price. Tariffs - if they come to full fruition - is only going to make it worse.