State of the team - 2011 SF Giants midseason review

The baseball season is now at a third of its way through. The Giants sit comfortably (?) with a 39-33 record, six games above 500. The team is leading the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks by half a game in the NL West. By these statistics alone, the team should consider ourselves extremely lucky to be where they are.

Coming off an incredible world championship run last year, the start of this baseball season was very promising. Practically everybody that was on the championship winning team was back. The great pitching staff that posted historic numbers last September and October was still here. The clutch hitting band of misfits that made up the team last year was back. Rookie of Year winner Buster Posey was ready to stake his claim as the perennial NL all star catcher for the next decade. Miguel Tejada joined the team to rejuvenate himself by returning to the Bay Area. Super rookie first basemen Brandon Belt was ready to be the second coming of Will Clark. All the ingredients was there for a proper title defense.

Oh what a difference two and a half months make. 

The magic is still definitely there with the team. The Giants leads the entire world of baseball with their record in one run games, come from behind wins, and walk-off wins. In fact it is rare to see the Giants win a game where they have led from the start. The constant formula is the team will get behind by a couple of runs, the starting pitcher then will hold it to only a couple of runs, then in the late innings the hitters will finally comeback to tie and take the lead, lastly the bullpen shuts down the opposing team. This has been the formula for the Giant’s success so far this season. 

The pitching staff that looked absolutely rock solid last post season is still present. They are up top in all pitching categories such as ERA and opponent’s batting average. A huge amount of credit goes to the feel good story of the team, Ryan Vogelsong. Barry Zito (our 17 million dollar guy!) was pitching around ineffectively with his 83mph fastball. It was a blessing in disguise when Zito injured himself while fielding. Going to the DL allowed Vogelsong to take his spot and arguably (by stats) became the best pitcher on the team. Needless to say if it is not for the pitching staff, the current Giants team will be only as good as the Houston Astros (yes Houston, they got problem). 

Because the position players that looked so good to augment the great pitching for another title run is now a shamble of what the team started with at the beginning of the season. The beloved Buster Posey (along with defense, handling of the pitching staff, and bat) is done for the season with an ankle blown to pieces at the hands of a dirty play by Marlin’s Scott Cousins. Call me a biased homer, but Cousin had a lane to the plate. He decided instead to just pile drive right into Posey. It was nothing but dirty. It is then only justice then that since that night back in late May, the Marlins have gone 3-22, manager resigned, and Cousins is on the DL with a bad back. 

Another guy lost for the season (more likely than not, let’s be honest) was by far the second best hitter (and likely on his way to a gold glove) on the team in Freddy Sanchez. All due to a freak accident in which his hand slipped while diving for a ball, causing his entire weight to be put on his shoulder socket. What happened after that was not pretty, and all too painful.

The guy that was absolutely raking the ball, the 40 pounds lighter Pablo Sandoval, was lost due to a broken hamate bone (raise your hand if you knew what a hamate bone was before) for some 40 games. Only this past week has he come back to the join the team after surgery and rehab. It looks like it will take a bit for him to acclimate back to the big leagues and resume hitting like he was before he got injured.

Brandon Belt fizzled under pressure at the beginning of the season, and was sent down back to the minors when Cody Ross came back from his injury during spring training. As luck would have it, when Belt was ready again and called up to the team he got beaned by a pitch right on his wrist, causing a micro fracture. He promptly joins his fellow Giants on the disabled list. A list that also includes the clutch Mike Fontenot (pulled his groin.. TWICE) and speedy Darren Ford (pulled his ankle while scoring the game winning run against Oakland)

Being riddled with the injury bug is not an excuse (unless you are the Boston Red Soxs), because the rest of the guys needs to step up. Unfortunately by and large this has not happened. Miguel Tejada did not find his fountain of youth in his bat (take a pitch! try to walk! don’t be an automatic out!), though to give him credit his defense has been stellar at third. Aubrey Huff seems complacent this year after winning the world series, with numbers all around that were much lower than last year’s. Pat Burrell became the king of the useless homeruns (only hitting them during times when it did not matter). With Posey out for the season, the backup catcher Eli Whiteside not only cannot hit, but his fielding is below average.

With Tejada ineffective at short, the Giants fast tracked their promising short stop Brandon Crawford to fill in. While he had some early heroics and plays a terrific short stop, his bat has silenced these past weeks. Can’t really blame the guy as he essentially did not even play AAA ball. The platoon filling in for Freddy Sanchez in the form of Manny Burriss and Bill Hall has so far yield negligible results in the hitting department. 

That being said, there are a couple of bright spots on the team with the hitting. Nate “The Great” Schierholtz seems to come through every time in the clutch, Cody Ross has so far been consistent every since he shaken off the cob webs after coming back form the DL, and Andres Torres is still getting on base and setting the table up for the guys behind him. 

But let’s not kid our selves. The teams’ only weakness, and it is a massive one, is that it cannot hit (and score). The team has an absurd record in its favor when it scores four or more runs. Unfortunately that does not happen all too often. The team has lost plenty of games that was winnable if they could just eke out a few runs. You just cannot ask the pitching to pitch shutouts every time out, because the law of averages in baseball dictates that it is just impossible. 

The current team cannot afford a pitching or defensive mistake, otherwise they have almost no chance of winning the game. Kudos to the pitching staff for not threatening mutiny against the hitters for the ineptitude. 

So what happens going forward? First of all the team needs to be completely healthy. Posey and Sanchez is gone for the season, so forget about them (harsh). Fontenot, Belt, and Ford needs to recover and come back ready to contribute. Especially Belt, since he is the lone backup first baseman on the team, and can spell Huff when he is tired (which is often). Not to mention Belt can play solid defense.

After that, the team needs to start hitting and scoring with some regularity. The main reason the team had its run last year was because the hitting picked up. From June on last year the Giants were definitely not at the bottom of the barrel in terms of hitting (and we smacked quite a few homeruns as well). The team will need that kind of production increase again this year if we are to make the playoffs again. Do you know why the Padres faded last year and Giants took the division? They STOPPED hitting (and a 10 game losing streak in September did not hurt). Giants are in first place now, but if the hitting continues to be lethargic, Arizona will clip us. 

Another thing is the Giants need to find another catcher. There is a reason Eli Whiteside was never a full time starter in ANY level of baseball. His hitting prowess is below the average of major league catchers. On top of that his defense is not all that great to compensate for a limp bat (think I have ran out of fingers to count how many passed balls he had these past weeks). The backup catcher Chris Stewart is not the option either. His defense is much more solid than Whiteside, but his hitting is worse (if that is even possible). There is a reason Stewart has been bounced around from team to team. The team just need a defensively sound catcher that can competitively handle the bat that is on par with the league average. In the NL with no DH, a team just can’t afford to give another automatic out. 

Fans better thank the heavens that the pitching staff has been relatively untouched by the injury bug (discounting Zito). And they will have to remain rock solid not only in the health department but the pitching as well for the team to have any chance. Even if the offense improves, the team is still not going to blow out people on a every night basis.

And of course the magic. It may not be the way the team wants to win all the time, but the whole keep it close and we will come back late to win mentality can carry the team for the rest of the season. It has to give the team confidence (and scare the opposing team to death) knowing that they can comeback and win any game that is close because the pitching staff more often than not will keep it that way. Other than the pitching, it is the strongest notion the team can hang their hopes (and hats) on. 

Here’s to a great remaining 2/3s of the season for the beloved Giants. 

Second tech bubble

Mark Andreessen, one of the founders of the modern web browser, said during last week's All Things D conference that there is no second coming of the tech bubble. Part of the reason he said is because everybody think there is a bubble. How convenient that his own venture capital firm is staying away from all startups that involves the internet, social networking, location, web 2.0, etc!

I am sorry Mark, but just because everybody says there is a tech bubble does not automatically mean there isn't one. Heck back in the early 2000s when the first tech bubble was in its maturity, many a people were screaming out loud that there was a bubble then (Either that or self righteous people want to toot their own horns by saying "yeah, I saw that coming, I warned them"). The first time it happened nobody listened, and now people ought not make the same mistake twice. Because in my opinion there is another tech bubble brewing, and clearly many people that are joining in my assertions.

The first tech bubble was about converting ordinary services to the online sphere (Pets.com anyone?), and this current tech bubble is all about social networking. Social networking is absolutely the next big thing, and on that I agree. It has already change they way how people interact and share with each other (and to complete strangers). Suddenly, the world gotten much smaller with social networking (hello my cousins in China!). It is indeed a paradigm shift, and thinkers and dreamers are hard at work tying to monetize it.

Except nobody knows how to monetize it yet. If it was not for various forms of ad services (looking at you Google), nobody would be making any kind of money right now in social networking (Facebook selling our information, yeah!). Because what is the one thing that most social networking services have in common? It is FREE to the end user. How on earth are you going to make money if the sole product you offer is being sold to your customers at the price of free? In traditional sense of a business, this would never work, and the only reason it has "worked" so far is the revenues from selling ad space. 

And it is not like these social networking can just change their mind one day and start charging their customers. Because first of all nobody would then use the product (would you use Facebook if you have to pay a monthly fee?), and secondly pricing your products low (in this case free) and then going high is usually not the correct business strategy (you price high, and adjust down if necessary). 

So if these companies and never going to make a dime off their end users (in the strictest sense), how else are they going to make money besides selling ad revenue? Well I can't tell you the answer, because I don't know the answer. If I did I would be rich. it is going to take a long time before the magic code to monetize social networking will reveal itself. 

But can't these companies just earn money off of selling ads? (Or selling our information eh Facebook?). Well clearly they cannot, because by all accounts, most of these social networking companies are not profitable (yet?). So naturally these companies need to raise capital from other sources, such as angels, venture capitalists, investors, and the public. Sounds bit like the first tech bubble doesn't it? Simply giving money to companies that have no clear way of making any real profit. 

Just a few weeks ago LinkedIN filed for an IPO, at an valuation of the company at $4.3 billion dollars. This is 17 times the company's 2010 revenue, and I think it is insane for a company that has only recently in 2010 turned a profit (and lied to the public saying that they have been profitable since 2007). For comparison, Apple is currently trading at something around 16 times the company's previous fiscal year revenue. But the difference here is that Apple is immensely profitable with industry leading profit margins, and they also have 50 billion dollars in straight cash reserves. There is no way LinkenIN should have a stock value to revenue ratio amongst the likes of Apple.

But of course the investors bought it up, LinkedIN's IPO was deemed successful. Outside of IPOs, venture capitalists are dumping money hand over fist at any internet startup that deals with some form of social networking, which leads to the proliferation of it on the internet these days. Not a day went by the last few years without some new cool can't miss social platform springing out of the ground. If this once again sounds all too much like the first tech bubble, it does. Capitalists and investors do not want to miss out on the next big thing (that being social network, and there is no dispute), so they invest in anything that will attract a large user base. 

It is a maxim of any good business - you must have a large target market that will use your product. Any successful social networking today has that. I think investors are just dumping money into these companies, hoping that one day they will find a way to properly monetize it. It appears that the only way to do that is currently through an IPO (original LinkedIN founders and investors got a fat pay day). But guess who suffers when this second tech bubble burst and the value of these companies go for a nose dive? The public's. 

The bubble is real, it is happening right now, and with the chorus of people screaming that it is, one would think the tech investment circle would be more wise. 

Up & down - random thoughts

Can't say that did not suck. I was at the ballpark last night for Giants versus the Marlins when Buster Posey got pulverized by that other guy at home plate and is now going to be out for a at least a couple of months with a broken lower leg and a completely busted (no pun) ankle. Arguably the best player on the Giants, losing Posey for an extended period of time absolutely sucked all the positive energy out of the team and the Giants fan base. Today was overall depressing and a drag, not only because the news of Posey, but the Giants also lost today as well and got swept by the Marlins (guess the team was feeling the same).

It completely overshadowed what was an epic ninth inning comeback in last night's game when the Giants rallied for four (FOUR!) runs to tie the game. I mean the Giants have trouble scoring four runs a game, much less in one inning. It was a sight to behold, and the TRUE fans that were still left in the stadium got a visual treat. It is moment like that, that makes the game a beautiful one. Fans and players alike live for them. Too bad the moment will not not be soon remembered because of what happened only three innings later.

That being said, the team and the fan base must move on. The Giant's pitching staff is still tops in the majors, and have potential to blank an opponent on any given day. Sure losing Posey will mean not only his bat but also his catching abilities in handling the staff, but I think having Bochy as a former catcher means whoever does replace Posey on a permanent basis (Whiteside or somebody else) will be fine in adapting to handling the staff. If Belt plays to his potential, and Panda returns in two weeks continue his form, the offense for the most part will be fine as well. The team is infinitely better with Posey, but it is at the very least still a very competitive team without him. It is not even June yet, plenty of ball to be played.

So other than that, my first week of post under grad life have been great. Finally got past being sick the past couple of weeks was a welcome sign as I finally get to work out properly again. Though I definitely lost some of my strength because I lost a couple of reps on all my workouts. Anyways, treat your body well because being sick absolutely sucks (accept you sleep really well, only to wake up finding out that you are still sick). 

I have to say, my entrepreneurship graduation ceremony this past Friday was the best. Two years of hard work with the same people culminated in a celebration unlike any other. Of course these type of things are all for the parents, but I think for us the graduates we had a great time as well (free booze did not hurt one bit). My favorite part of the ceremony was when our names got called individually to get recognized and make a small speech. Very interesting to see what my classmates have to say during one of their best moments in their lives (I am surprised our professor had the fortitude to hold back the tears haha). Anyways thanks to the power of media, our class will always have pictures and videos of the ceremony to remember with.

Naturally I skipped the "big" ceremony that happened on the next day. My sympathies to those that sat in the sun for four hours only to see your graduate's name get called. I on the other hand slept in, ate pho for breakfast, and then had a nice stroll in Golden Gate Park and drank tea at the Japanese Tea Garden. Not a bad way to spend the day after grad I think (of course there were alcohol involved the night before). 

And the party continues this weekend! Actually all on Saturday. Got invited to a party to watch a soccer (what the rest of the world would call football) match, which just happens to be the biggest soccer match in Europe every year (the UEFA Champions league final). Unfortunately that soccer here is only big every four years when the World Cup rolls around (it is the only time I get to watch a soccer game on TV here in America. Thank you ESPN). I would be a bigger soccer fan if it actually shows up more on TV. Back when I was still in China soccer was about the only sport there is to watch because it was so big everywhere. Here in America I've grown to adore the game of Baseball and American Football, and have seldom watch a soccer game of any sort. Anyways, I am very excited for some soccer action. It is going to be Manchester United vs. Barcelona. Should be a good match at the very least. Who am I rooting for? Well I am rooting for a good exciting game haha. 

Honestly, this whole post undergrad world is still very strange to me. Until next time. 

This is where the fun begins

Presented here is my little speech made at the SFSU entrepreneurship class of 2011 graduation celebration on May 20th, 2011. Congrats again to all my classmates!

Thank you Professor. First of all I would like to thank everyone for coming this afternoon and honoring our class with your presence. These past two years have indeed been extremely tough and rewarding at the same time. And to be honest, I’ve always expected to make it to this day. Because for me, once I started this entrepreneurship program, I was absolutely determined to reach the finish line. My only problem was finding the motivation to start. But thankfully I got that shove out of the plane, and here I am!

Of course, a big thanks goes out to Professor Gaglio. To quote my classmate Lee, this class changed my life. I knew you were a person to be reckon with when I saw the 30 page syllabus that was handed out on the first day of the first class. Little did we know, that was the only piece of written instruction for the rest of the semester! Professor, your hands off approach made the learning that much deeper, because we were forced to make mistakes. That being said, the workload of teaching an entire concentration by yourself must have been tremendous, and I truly appreciate what you have done for us. Thank you for giving me a college education that was many, many times over what I paid for tuition.

My parents. Sorry everyone but I am going to do this in Chinese: <Chinese> Mom, dad, thanks for the support throughout the 23 years. I will not throw away all the hope you have place in me. I am up here today because you two. Thank you. </Chinese>

To my close friends that have made it here this afternoon, thanks for supporting me throughout the years. All the chats, debates, ball games, food runs, movie nights, trips, arguments, and other various hijinks we have reminded me that I do have a life outside of entrepreneurship.

Last but last least, my beloved classmates. We did it! We finally achieved the American dream of being a college graduate with a mountain of debt. It has been an honor to go through the entrepreneurship program with you guys. I have high respect for each and everyone of you because we all know that it takes a special person to make it here today. Thank you for the support, the laughs, the learning, and most importantly, the late nights at the library annex. Please keep in touch, because not only are we the strongest network we have, but I also have photography services to sell to all of you. 

I would like to end by saying this to my classmates: its time to jump out of the plane - there is no going back. Because this is where the fun begins.

Thank you.