Blog

Short blog posts, journal entries, and random thoughts. Topics include a mix of personal and the world at large.

Economic turkey

You know what’s a surprisingly economical meal? Thanksgiving food. Turkey, mash potatoes, ham, and frozen broccoli can all be bought at Costco for about $75. That lot will comfortably feed 10 adults into a food coma. In this inflated economy, I think Thanksgiving food is a very viable option for other times of the year. The price per pound per gram of protein of a turkey is devastatingly superior.

You know what grinds my gears? When people say: “When adjusted for inflation.” It’s annoying because the person saying that line is invariable using it as a defense of the current economy. It’s not so bad once you adjust for inflation! A 2024 Honda Civic is magnitudes better than the 2000 version, at a cheaper price when inflation adjusted.

That’s great, but we don’t live in the past. Our reality cannot adjusted for inflation. Telling people X isn’t so bad when you consider Y and Z is a recipe for losing an election. The economy under President Biden may look mathematically great: all-time highs in the stock market, and broad wage increases that kept up with the pandemic inflation. But people don’t feel great about the economy. Facts may not care about feelings, but facts don’t vote, feelings do.

I’ve certainly been negatively vocal about the economy on this blog. I’ve had a fortunate 30% increase to my 2019 salary - the keeping up with inflation part - and yet I feel like my purchasing power has gone to shits. What people want is deflation, but without all the other hugely deleterious effects. Of course, that’s not possible, but the Americans sure voted like it is!

It's going to be alright

So, how are we feeling? If your presidential candidate of choice won the election, congratulations. I hope America does incredible well under his leadership. I believe nobody seeks democratically elected office to do harm. Because otherwise you’d get voted out the next go around. The winner on Tuesday did lose back in 2020.

If your presidential candidate of choice lost on Tuesday, well, there’s a finite end to your perceived suffering. Four more years is just that: four more. It can’t be anymore than that! And then the pages of history will continue to turn. Spend these next fours years focused on yourself and the people around you. Quit social media and go outside to touch grass often (as the kids say these days).

I read that there was a wholesale shift towards the Republican ticket this time compared to 2020. But I think we have to wait for the total vote tally to tell the full story. If Trump got roughly the same amount of votes as his two previous campaigns, and it’s the Democratic ticket that got less votes, then that’s an entirely different conversation. Where did that chunk of blue voters go? It can’t be entirely California…

Is it as simple as it’s the economy, stupid? The stock markets may be at all-time highs, but inflation is indeed pernicious. Even though inflation supposedly normalized this year, it’s not like the inflated prices then went back down, right? The prices merely stopped going up. The grocery budget is still unaffordably high for lots of people. While the President of the United States can’t really do anything about that, it comes down to this: the vibes are bad, so we need something different.

Wasn’t that the case in 2020? Difficult to believe that COVID was that long ago now.

Ads all the way down

Ever notice there’s advertisement in absolutely everything? Even things that formerly did not have any ads. Amazon Prime video is now showing ads in its video content. To get the ad-free experience as before, you have to pay extra per month. It’s just like watching cable TV: many ad breaks within a program. I thought the whole point of “cutting the cord” was the ability to watch an entire episode uninterrupted? How the tables have turned. The arc of progress is a circle.

All because of ads. The entire house of cards is built on ads. Google can’t afford to give away stuff like Gmail if adverts weren’t the majority of the billions in revenues. Your favorite sports league’s viability is entirely based on the ability to sell ads - either at the arena, or on TV broadcasts. The reason WNBA players don’t make as much as NBA players is because they can’t attract enough advertising dollars. (It’s definitely not sexism.) Our favorite online platforms - that we use for free - wouldn’t exist without ads. We’re not the customer, we’re the product.

Downstream from all these advertisements is consumer spending. That’s the other major leg on this house of cards. Ads induce people to buy things they didn’t even realize they needed. Imagine if people didn’t buy, that every adult in this country is fiscally responsible, and consumer credit card debt is not a giant sword of Damocles. This economy would crumble. Companies would spend less on ads. Netflix wouldn’t have big budgets for its TV series. Your favorite online publication might have to charge subscription fees.

Not that I am wishing for the economy to go to shits. I’ve just become more aware of how pervasive advertising is, how much it props up a lot of things we use and enjoy. It’s kind of icky feeling, honestly. In response to Amazon Prime now showing ads in its video platform, I will be way less inclined than I already am to watch anything on that platform.

Another one

Word on the street is that Little Paris - a staple restaurant in San Francisco’s Chinatown for decades - is planning to close up shop. Among the cited reasons are low customer traffic that never recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and the landlord raising the rent. Jokes on the landlord: he (I’m going to presume it’s a he) went from hopeful increase in rental income, to now having zero income. Congratulations, you played yourself.

According to the linked article, the landlord refused to negotiate. In this economy? Honestly, are folks chomping at the bits to open a restaurant in Chinatown? The problems that are causing Little Paris to close down are not going away for potential new tenants. The landlord would rather risk vacancy than coming to a suitable agreement with the proprietor of Little Paris. I know inflation is wild these days, but I highly doubt the landlord was losing money at the old rental rate. As far as I know, property taxes in California have not gone up.

It is greed. Pure greed. Anyone raising prices for the sake of it alone is shortsighted at best, evil at worst.

I can’t say I have too much memories tied to Little Paris. My family was too poor to afford me an allowance back then. There was no getting a sandwich and sugary drink with friends, no matter how cheap the banh mi is there. For my school mates with spending money, Little Paris was seemingly a popular destination. For them I guess it would be sad to see a piece of their childhood going away.

It is too damn high

I was due in for my annual physical tomorrow, but in lieu of Kaiser Permanente workers commencing a three-day strike today, I had to reschedule. Because I too am a member of a union, and the unofficial rule (or perhaps official?) for union members is to never ever cross a picket line. Not the one of your union, or any other union. In respect and support for the Kaiser workers, it’s no big deal for me to delay my routine visit. It’s not like I’ve got an open arterial wound (would have been long dead by now).

A huge fist of solidarity to those healthcare workers. These inflationary times are indeed super tough. Have you guys noticed the gas prices lately? The cost per gallon of gas has jumped solidly into the six dollars. Well, except at Costco. But then you’d be queuing up with everybody and their mothers just to save a few bucks. I get it though: it certainly feels like a unit of money doesn’t get you very much these days. Workers are simply fighting for wages that keep up with the inflation. Those PG&E utility rates aren’t shrinking, that’s for sure.

Inflation is even more jarring when you know what the prices were from way before. A breakfast burrito at the taqueria on campus used to cost less than five dollars. I curiously checked last week and it has ballooned to over $11! Granted, that’s about par for the course these days for a meal, but because I know what that burrito used to cost - more than half of what it is today - I cannot bring myself to pay the new price. I rather walk to nearby Chipotle and get a bowl for $12. At least that item was never under five dollars.

Kaiser Permanente workers on strike: I hope you get the maximum possible. I shall see some of you in two weeks when I go in for my rescheduled annual checkup.

Chinese winter is coming

At this point, I would not be surprised if the Tokyo Olympics gets delayed.

As we head into the third month of the coronavirus disaster, I think we’re starting to see the economic ramifications from the global supply chain being effectively shut down. China is such an integral part to practically everything the world runs on that sooner or later the consequences of the country-wide lock down will start showing up. Apple have already served caution for its next quarter’s revenue due to production delays and lack of demand in China. The world’s largest mobile phone show - Mobile World Congress - is cancelled, probably because the huge contingent from China is unable to travel to Barcelona. The Formula One grand prix in Shanghai is heading towards cancellation.

My brother, who works at a Toyota dealership, tells me there’s currently a huge shortage of hybrid models, presumably due to disrupted raw material supply in China for the batteries. The situation is not ideal for him and Toyota because the company’s hybrid cars are some of its best sellers.

The stock market in the States is still at all-time highs, though I suspect with the looming cliff of quarterly reports from companies since the coronavirus outbreak, the markets might not look so rosy in a few months’ time (I’m not a professional advisor; please do your own research).

I think we take for granted how crucial China is to the smooth running of the rest of the world, so quick and easy it is to hate on China because of its communist one-party rule, that we don’t think of what can happen when that gets taken away. Unfortunately, we’re all about to find out soon enough. Personally I’ve already eliminated any thoughts of traveling abroad this year; until the corner is turned on the coronavirus, going to Asia is effectively impossible.

I suspect holding the Tokyo Olympics on-time will largely hinge on this.

Porsche really hit it out of the park on the styling of the current-generation Panamera sedan.

But a recession is coming

I am ready and itching to head off on another travel adventure. It’s been a solid two months since my return from Japan, and as typical with the ebb and flow of these things, I’ve physically and mentally recovered, and recharged to set off again.

Of course, I don’t have nearly that much freedom from work to be able to skip town every two months, nor do I have the appropriate budget to do so. Indeed, the trip to Japan drained quite a bit of my cash reserves; a stash that was already lower than previous years due to my purchase of the GT3. I’m going to need at least a few more months to store back up the reserves, so even though I’m pining for another escape, the smart thing to do is to enact austerity.

Besides, I’ll be making my annual trip back home to China come the end of December. What’s another three more months of waiting, honestly. More importantly, homecoming trips don’t cost me any money because our family uses the proceeds from our rental property in China to fund it. Otherwise, I don’t think I’d be making the trip this year.

Because the recession is looming, and I think it’s important to batten down the hatches for such an event. Perhaps it’s idiosyncratic to my San Francisco locality, but I am seeing the recession signs all around: vacant storefronts, restaurants closing down, houses not selling, and rooms not renting out. Things definitely don’t look as prosperous as the stock market and unemployment numbers would indicate.

There are similar signs as well in an area near and dear to my proclivities: the automobile. The recent car auctions in Monterey back in August saw a 34% drop compared to 2018 results. You know things are turning sour when ultra rich people are holding off spending their free cash. Just yesterday, Subaru announced its first month of decline in sales after a streak of 93 months (almost eight years!) consecutive growth. That’s the proverbial canary in the coal mine stuff, and the entire auto industry in a downturn now.

I don’t think I’ll stop traveling if and when the recession happens, god willing that I myself don’t get laid off from employment, but for sure I need to build back up the war chest so to speak, for the next rainy day.