Blog

Short blog posts, journal entries, and random thoughts. Topics include a mix of personal and the world at large.

Are we not entertained?

Are we having fun with the tariffs yet? With so many things that we buy being manufactured in China, it's about to get expensive really quickly. The proverbial death by a thousand cuts. The best position to be is not needing to buy anything beyond pure sustenance for the foreseeable future.

Or you had the foresight to buy the things before the tariffs hit. Anecdotally, I've heard of people buying new cars before foreign-produced vehicles get taxed. Another person bought the made-in-China MacBook Pro before Apple has to figure out how to pass along the cost of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports. I'm going to convince my dad to upgrade his iPhone 11 somewhat soon.

I myself bought a set of bumper weight plates from Rogue Fitness. The plates are made in China, of course. As of this writing - April 11th - the price for the same set has already increased $25. Surely it will go up even higher still when inventory gets replenished with shipments coming after the tariffs went into effect.

Or maybe not? The directive coming out of the White House is so inconsistent. Hard to predict how much inventory will cost in two weeks' time because tariffs might not be a thing anymore. And then a few days later, it may be back again!

The people who are truly getting fucked over are the small businesses with a Chinese supply chain. You can easily imagine the situation where an order was made before the tariffs, but it shipped after the tariffs. Congratulations, your cost of goods sold is so expensive that you no longer have a viable business.

Better move that supply chain to the States, am I right? (Sarcasm.)

Direct flights, baby

As a member of the jet-setting class entirely reliant on credit-card points (rather fake-rich if you ask me), I've had the pleasure of sitting in the various classes on an airplane. (Right to privilege jail, right away.) As obvious as it may be that the further front you sit the more comfortable, in my experience it doesn't ease the pain of the truly long-haul flights. 15 hours from San Francisco to Hong Kong is arduous no matter if you are wealthy enough to lie completely flat to sleep. A pressurized metal tube with superbly dry air is a bad combination no matter what.

I think the lever to pull in terms of comfort is shortening the time spent on an airplane. It's a shame there were never follow-up to the sound barrier shattering Concorde. For the rest of plebs in the real world, direct flights are absolutely worth the extra costs.

Since 2014 - only interrupted by the COVID pandemic - I've flew back (birth) home to Guangzhou, China every single year. 2025 marks the first year I took a direct flight from San Francisco. Previously I had to make a transfer at Hong Kong, entailing another four hours of travel time on top of the 15 hours I just continuously spent on an airplane. Usually I am completely spent by the time I reach home.

Let me tell you: direct flight is magnitudes better in experience. This year I was back in the heart of Guangzhou by 9:00 AM (previously it would have been at least 1:00 PM). Not only that, it's a slightly shorter flight to CAN compared to HKG. For the first time, I actually had energy in reserve on arrival day, rather than zombie it through until I can properly sleep on the first night.

Let's hope China and United States relations remain amiable enough that the direct route from San Francisco to Guangzhou remains viable. But honestly the next three years is super difficult to predict. As I write this there's a 145% tariff on goods originating from China into the States. It does feel kind of weird to be a former Chinese national with a U.S. passport traveling between the two countries…

Sitting pretty

With the (supposedly) looming 25% tariffs on all automobiles assembled outside of the United States, the people in the best position is drivers like me: owning a fully paid off car that’s made in this decade. So long as my BMW M2 doesn’t get totaled in an accident (knocks on wood), I don’t have to worry about the price increases that are sure to come. That is, if President Trump actually goes through with the threat.

With so much economic uncertainty in the near horizon, a debt-free position, with multiple months of cash in reserves, is more crucial than ever. The only reason a recent auto insurance premium increase did not cripple me is because my car is paid off. Funds that would otherwise have gone to service a loan (the average new car payment currently is a whopping $742 a month) now acts as a buffer.

And it’s having a money buffer that keeps the stresses at bay. Friends have checked in on me recently, because my place of employment is facing a budget deficit. Layoffs are definitely on the table. Am I worried about my job? Not as much as I should be, as perceived from the outside. A emergency fund runway for many months of spending allows me to not stress about any job loss. The world is not going to end. I’ve got the time and resources to reset at my own pace.

Even outside of losing a job, life will keep throwing financial curveballs at you. That’s just part of the game. Unexpected expenses are unexpected. Living on thin margins month-to-month leaves you vulnerable. Having a buffer is just good preparation.

I know, I know: sob story about how everything is more expensive, and people aren’t as privilege as me. Okay, someone please square this hole: if many folks are so struggling, then explain the record-breaking 2024 holiday shopping season?

Price sensitivity

The goal of President Trump’s tariffs threat is to bring manufacturing back to America, right? The downside of course is that things will become more expensive. Manufacturing didn’t leave America because of some evil corporate plan. The simple reality is that labor is cheaper elsewhere. Lowering cost of goods sold is a big lever to increase profits. Or have profits in the first place.

Tariffs are merely tacking those labor savings back onto the purchase price. There’s one for sure loser, and it’s the consumer.

For sure there are plenty of cheap crap coming out of China. But in the year 2025 it’s beyond pass time to acknowledge that China can also produce things of the highest quality. Did we forget the iPhone has been made in China since inception? The Apple smartphone is as precise a device as it gets.

“Made in the U.S.A.” still denotes a higher quality in people’s minds. Whether or not it’s actually true is up for debate. What is definitely true is that it’ll cost more compared to foreign-sourced manufacturers. I recently bought a barbell, and the unit made with American steel is $85 dearer than the Chinese-made equivalent from another company. The decision was easy.

Coming out of the high inflationary period of the pandemic, I am always looking for the best deals on anything. And doesn’t everybody? Who has the money to boycott Amazon (because big bad Bezos)? If a particular item is the cheapest on Amazon, I am buying it there. I do not have the income to support an artisan soap business at a farmer’s market. If you do, please go ahead.

I will live life as cheaply as possible, because everything else has gone up in price. Tariffs - if they come to full fruition - is only going to make it worse.

Let him cook

President Trump has enacted tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. Begun, the trade wars have. For what reason, it’s not immediately clear. For the general public, the salient thing is prices will be going up. If you’re looking to buy a car this year, pray that it isn’t manufactured in Canada or Mexico! You really think automakers are going to eat that tariff costs entirely?

The best thing to do right now is to let Trump cook (as the kids say these days). Whatever he’s got planned, be it Project 2025 or whatever, let him execute. The good ideas will work, and the bad ideas won’t. You have to allow people to directly feel the consequences. Otherwise the lesson never gets learned. I wonder how Trump-voting Federal employees are dealing with the freezes and return-to-office mandate. Your vote, your consequences…

What’s disgusting to see is people appealing to Democrats to do something. First of all, it’s extremely pointless to badger the minority party. Secondly, the party that has been pilloried for their empathy (the path to DEI is paved with very good empathic intentions) can’t then be asked to utilize that same empathy to save you. It’s like the woman who rejects the nice guy but yet wants the supportive benefits the nice guy provides.

You cannot have it both ways. Democrats ought to turn off their empathy muscles for the time being. They should not let their tendency to want to limit harm be used to save the same people that rejected it. Like the nice guy that refuses to leave, at some point you’re just allowing yourself to be abused.

I’m for letting winning Presidents to implement their agenda. The market (read: U.S. population) will determine whether they are good or bad. High inflation knocked out Biden/Harris; if Trump - due to the tariffs - causes another high inflation period, the Republican Party will surely be in a precarious position in the next election cycle.

Unconsumed holidays

Word on the street is that with the supposed Trump tariffs looming on goods made in China, people should buy what they need now to save a buck or two. If you’ve been eyeing a dishwasher upgrade and the thing is Chinese made, time to buy yourself a Christmas present.

Anecdotally, sales representatives have warned us at work to put in big orders now, should the tariffs come into fruition, and suddenly that batch of laptops is now 20% dearer in price. I’m sure the representative has an incentive to sell as much as possible before the end of the year for that bonus. That said, our university is not exactly loaded with cash, so any savings on bulk purchases is not nothing.

Maybe Trump is playing 4D chess: threatens tariffs, inadvertently causes the biggest holiday buying season of all time.

It may be the most wonderful time of the year in terms of weather and atmosphere, but the blatant and rampant consumerism of the holidays is kind of disgusting. The combination of Black Friday and present shopping is both a financial burden and environmentally unfriendly. The endless shipping boxes and the energy it takes to get them to customers.

I’m glad my friend group do not have holiday gifting culture. And even if we did, I’d buy everybody stuff they’d actually use. Like toilet paper, or a pack of USDA Prime beef. The last thing I need more of are items that just sits on a shelf to look nice. It would go straight to the trash bin if and when I ever move home again.

Good news: I saved 100% by buying nothing!

Trump threatens Germany with car tariffs

People in the car forums I frequent are up in arms about President Trump potentially slapping a 20% tariff on German-made vehicles. Rightfully so because who would want to pay 20% more on already expensive German cars. Though I think if tariffs were enacted the situation won’t be that simple.

Contrary to popular conjecture, people who can afford luxury vehicles are highly price sensitive. They haggle just the same as buyers of Toyota Camrys. Even the super rich would setup LLCs in Montana, register their vehicles under the company to avoid paying hefty license fees in their home State. Bottom line is that nobody wants to pay a penny more for a car than absolute necessary.

Therefore if Trump imposes the 20% tariff, automakers like Mercedes, Audi, and BMW aren’t going to suddenly raise the MSRP of their cars by equal measure - doing so would crater sales (simple price elasticity). Not only will higher prices be a deterrent, but consumers know that it’s because of tariffs so one they aren’t going to pay extra for the President’s stupid trade-war and two they will simply wait it out until the two sides come to an agreement.

I think the manufactures will raise the prices a bit just below what people are sensitive to, and then eat the rest of the costs for the time being - they’ve certainly made enough profits from selling SUVs the last few years to cover. Nevertheless it’s going to negatively affect the bottom line and the German government will be lobbied heavily to mediate.

One thing is for sure: more people aren’t going to start buying Cadillac or Lincoln.