Unconsumed holidays

Word on the street is that with the supposed Trump tariffs looming on goods made in China, people should buy what they need now to save a buck or two. If you’ve been eyeing a dishwasher upgrade and the thing is Chinese made, time to buy yourself a Christmas present.

Anecdotally, sales representatives have warned us at work to put in big orders now, should the tariffs come into fruition, and suddenly that batch of laptops is now 20% dearer in price. I’m sure the representative has an incentive to sell as much as possible before the end of the year for that bonus. That said, our university is not exactly loaded with cash, so any savings on bulk purchases is not nothing.

Maybe Trump is playing 4D chess: threatens tariffs, inadvertently causes the biggest holiday buying season of all time.

It may be the most wonderful time of the year in terms of weather and atmosphere, but the blatant and rampant consumerism of the holidays is kind of disgusting. The combination of Black Friday and present shopping is both a financial burden and environmentally unfriendly. The endless shipping boxes and the energy it takes to get them to customers.

I’m glad my friend group do not have holiday gifting culture. And even if we did, I’d buy everybody stuff they’d actually use. Like toilet paper, or a pack of USDA Prime beef. The last thing I need more of are items that just sits on a shelf to look nice. It would go straight to the trash bin if and when I ever move home again.

Good news: I saved 100% by buying nothing!

Take me out.

No presidency for old man

Ladies and gentlemen, our national nightmare is over: President Joe Biden will not seek reelection this November. Thank you for your multi-decades of service, Mr. President. Think about this: Joe Biden retired from politics before Grand Theft Auto 6 comes out.

Anybody who watched the (first and only) debate between President Biden and Donald Trump can tell that Biden is simply not mentality fit for the job. Not right now, not for another four years. Democrats are no better than Trump supporters if they bury their heads in the sand about this. Trotting out a senile old man and pretending everything is going to be just fine. Hey, vote for our caricature of a fully functioning human, because, you know, the other guy is truly horrible!

Cognitive decline for someone in his 80s is fine, normal, acceptable. You simply cannot expect President Biden to serve competently for another four years. Have you seen how eight years of the presidency has utterly aged Barrack Obama? It would be cruel to make Biden continue on, honestly. He deserves to retire and live the rest of his life as peacefully as possible.

Good news for Americans: our Sophie’s choice between a convicted felon and a senile grandfather is no more! Short of nominating Bernie Sanders (who is even older than President Biden), any candidate the Democratic Party nominates will seem like a breath of fresh air, a ray of excitement. Maybe it’ll be enough to sway those who otherwise would not vote for either Trump or Biden.

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Intersecting.

Morning in America

Ah, how nice is it to wake up in the morning and not have to worry about what crazy stuff the President has done this time. It’s a liberation that we have not known for the past four years. The sense that actual competence is in charge, and that ordinary citizens shouldn’t have to constantly worry about the country’s executive branch. Character matters. Kindness matters. And it’s welcoming to see integrity return to the highest office, the leader of the free world.

As we celebrate surviving the four years of Trump, we have to recognize the many that did not. The hundreds of thousands of Americans that didn’t need to die, if only we had a proper response to the coronavirus from the federal government. Folks of rural America, believing a con man can save them from their misery, but with only overdose death to show for it. The friends and family members, figuratively lost to the conspiracy rabbit hole, egged on by the self-affirming mechanisms of social media platforms.

The economy was going great, until it wasn’t. The one excuse that Trump supporters point to to explain away the many deficiencies of his presidency got utterly upended by COVID0019. How Trump must rue the misfortune of the pandemic. A better person would have seized the moment and lead with conviction. Trump only made it worse for himself by each misstep, doomed by the destiny of character that he so lacks.

That’s all over now, turning the page to the Biden presidency. After four years of sycophancy and nepotism, it’s such a relief to see capable people put back in charge. Normal has returned to Washington DC. Hopefully, with renewed effort on the vaccine rollout, normal will soon return to the rest of us as well.

God speed.

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Night changes.

Xmas is cancelled

The U.S. stock markets saw a 3% drop in each of the past two trading days and everyone is of course going nuts. After hovering at all-time highs for the past few weeks, the ever expanding threat of the coronavirus has finally spooked the markets into a mild drawdown. As I written about it briefly last week, the economic impact of the coronavirus is a huge lagging indicator, and we’re just starting the see the beginning signs that everything is not going to business as usual.

Being a relatively young person, I am immensely long on the stock market, so the past few day’s drops don’t materially affect me at all. I can’t even pull money out or put more money into my ROTH IRA: the former is restricted by definition, and the latter is restricted under the federal guidelines of $5,500 per year maximum. But it’s fun to watch, isn’t it? I certainly had a good laugh commiserating with workmates about how much money we pseudo hypothetically lost in the past 48 hours. That is, unless you have individual positions in Zoom or Campbell Soup: you’re actually up!

It’ll be interesting to see how President Trump reacts to this slump in the market, especially if it continues on (as of writing we are on pace for a third consecutive day of red). Trump sees the stock market as a de-facto referendum on his presidency, so any significant decline - like the ones we saw in the 4th quarter of 2018 - triggers him into irrational action. I’m sure Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is already hearing from our President to do something about this latest contraction; to continue lowering the borrowing rate and increase the Fed’s balance sheet.

Meanwhile, more so than fears of losses in the market, the coronavirus issue seems to still be proliferating, with bad news continuing to come out day after day. A friend of a friend has cancelled his wedding in South Korea because of the travel issues for attendees, and surely they’re just one of many couples in Asia that had their wedding dates affected, through no fault of their own. Yesterday, San Francisco Mayor declared a local emergency so the city can allocate resources in preparation should the virus spreads to our area. It appears we - the United States - are steeling ourselves for that eventuality, and not for a matter of if.

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At the bike barn.

Trump threatens Germany with car tariffs

People in the car forums I frequent are up in arms about President Trump potentially slapping a 20% tariff on German-made vehicles. Rightfully so because who would want to pay 20% more on already expensive German cars. Though I think if tariffs were enacted the situation won’t be that simple. 

Contrary to popular conjecture, people who can afford luxury vehicles are highly price sensitive. They haggle just the same as buyers of Toyota Camrys. Even the super rich would setup LLCs in Montana, register their vehicles under the company to avoid paying hefty license fees in their home State. Bottom line is that nobody wants to pay a penny more for a car than absolute necessary. 

Therefore if Trump imposes the 20% tariff, automakers like Mercedes, Audi, and BMW aren’t going to suddenly raise the MSRP of their cars by equal measure - doing so would crater sales (simple price elasticity). Not only will higher prices be a deterrent, but consumers know that it’s because of tariffs so one they aren’t going to pay extra for the President’s stupid trade-war and two they will simply wait it out until the two sides come to an agreement. 

I think the manufactures will raise the prices a bit just below what people are sensitive to, and then eat the rest of the costs for the time being - they’ve certainly made enough profits from selling SUVs the last few years to cover. Nevertheless it’s going to negatively affect the bottom line and the German government will be lobbied heavily to mediate. 

One thing is for sure: more people aren’t going to start buying Cadillac or Lincoln. 

A certified G, and a bona fide stud.